BEIJING, Nov 6 — US President Barack Obama will be seeking China’s backing over North Korea and Iran when he visits this month, but Beijing appears increasingly assertive about what Western pressure it accepts or rejects.
Obama’s summit in China in mid-November is sure to cover trouble-spots where Washington hopes Beijing will throw more of its growing political and economic weight behind efforts to defuse disputed nuclear programmes or diplomatic standoffs
China has bowed to such demands before, reluctantly backing limited UN sanctions against Pyongyang and Tehran, while resisting tougher steps it saw as unwarranted or a threat to bilateral ties.
Such diplomatic haggling, with China accepting some Western demands while protecting its bilateral ties with targeted states, will not change. But recent signs suggest China may now be more willing to stand its ground.
China’s continued economic growth and rise in diplomatic stature during the global financial crisis, and uncertainty over policy in Washington, had emboldened Beijing, said Andrew Small, a fellow at the German Marshall Fund in Brussels, who has studied China’s ties with the “rogue states”.
“Several years ago, China’s position was much more externally driven. Foreign pressure and US lobbying was much more important,” Small said of those ties.
“The US is still a big factor, but they’re finding they can be more assertive without putting relations with the US in jeopardy.”
Obama was likely to find bargaining for China’s support over nuclear programmes in North Korea and Iran more drawn out, said Shi Yinhong, a professor of international security at Renmin University in Beijing.
“China will become more self-confident about handling pressure from the US,” said Shi. “It will still cooperate, but there’s less a sense that concessions on these issues define the bilateral relationship.”
Beijing charted more of its own course most clearly with its communist neighbour, North Korea.
Last month, Premier Wen Jiabao courted its secretive top leader, Kim Jong-il, with a visit and President Hu Jintao hosted one of Kim’s confidantes and invited Kim to visit.
China remains worried about North Korea’s atomic weapons and wants to revive nuclear disarmament talks, said John Park, an expert on ties between the two countries at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington DC.
But recently China has focused more on healing bruised ties with the North, driven by a belief that Pyongyang appears set on keeping its small nuclear arsenal for a long time, and that US policy remains uncertain.
“I think the Chinese did an assessment and realised that the US approach is ineffective, so they had to recalibrate policy towards North Korea,” Park said.
The resulting “massive injection of political capital from China” may embolden North Korea, which held its second ever nuclear test in May, he added.
Obama may also appeal to Beijing for stronger backing to international efforts aimed at Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
China has backed UN resolutions pressing Tehran to cooperate with international demands it open its nuclear activities to UN inspectors.
But Obama may find Beijing less willing to give ground, even if Iran rejects a proposal that would send its enriched uranium abroad for processing into nuclear fuel, reducing worries that Tehran could use the material for nuclear weapons activities.
Tehran says its nuclear facilities are for peaceful ends.
In a sign China remains intent on preserving energy and trade ties with Iran, Premier Wen Jiabao last month hosted the First Vice President of Iran, Mohammad Reza Rahimi, telling him that bilateral cooperation was a priority.
Iranian oil made up nearly 12 per cent of China’s crude imports last year.
China has increasingly come to believe Western-backed sanctions have made drawing Tehran into effective negotiations harder, said Jin Liangxiang, a researcher at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies who studies the Middle East.
“On Iran, the Chinese simply can hide behind the Russians who have made it clear that they won’t support tougher sanctions,” Bonnie Glaser, an expert on China at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote in an email response to questions.
Even if Russia swings behind any new sanctions, China would go along only if it could insulate its stake in Iran, said Small.
“The bottom line is that in any one of these cases, China has never completely dropped anyone,” he said of Iran, North Korea and other states facing Western pressure.
“Economic issues now dominate relations with Washington, so China feels a bit more leeway on the security and foreign policy issues.” — Reuters
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Think 2nd Amendment Rights and Sovereignty of nations. Tehran and every other nation in the world has every right to create Nuclear weapons. But none may not use these weapons without reason. If Iraq or Vietnam had functional Nuclear weapons, would USA had wanted to invade them? No. That is why Iran wants Nuclear weapons.
Though so many of us find Iranian governance unnecessarily strict and religious, you have as much right as any nation in the Nuclear club to own and build nuclear weapons. Just as much as any person in this world has the right to refuse Military Conscription or to go apostate, choose another religion and no longer be affected by Syariah Courts.
Of course there is also the issue of maintenance and disposal of the same weapons if they are not used in a few decades, so weigh carefully the likelihood of a US or Asraeli invasion against the commitment of so much funds to build and maintain something that may never be used.
So don't let the West twist your arm, because you intend to do the same to another country? If you intend to make WMDs go right ahead an honestly admit it. It is your right. Do not fear Western sanctions which will only hurt their reputations (nobody likes bullies) and result in a weaker economy for them while the rest of the world continues trading with you.
At the same time though, remember that Nuclear weapons will poison the Earth and will affect all humanity if used and being geologically close to Israel, Nuclear warfare will irradiate the entire region instead.